Indian economy likely grew 15.1% in Q1 of FY23 aided by a favourable base and revival in services as all Covid restrictions were removed. Kirtika Suneja reports on expert estimates ahead of the April-June quarter national income estimates ahead of the offcial data release next week.
GDP rose 20.1% in Q1 FY22, 4.1% in Q4
GDP estimates for April-June
Agencies
KEY DRIVERS
Investment growth likely recovered
Rail freight, GST e-way bills corroborate growth
GVA growth is seen at 14.5%.
Vaxx drive booster for contactintensive services
17-19% growth in trade, hotels, transport, communication
High corporate travel, lower infections in Q1
Lockdown easing benefited urban consumption
DRAGS ON GROWTH
Russia-Ukraine war, high commodity prices dampened consumption
Severe heatwave hit wheat output, farm growth
Farm growth may slip to 3% from 4.1% in Q4
Slowing exports impacted the industry
Rising interest rates and high inflation
WHAT’S AHEAD
Steady growth seen but multiple risks
FY23 GDP pegged at around 7%
Demand destruction in India’s key trading partners: US, EU, China
Uncertain global environment, geo-political situation
Slowdown in global growth
Inflation and monetary tightening could dent demand