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PUNE: Half of June is over, but monsoon’s performance across India so far has been disappointing. At 25%, there are glaring rainfall deficits not only in the entire country, but also in the regions where it has already set in. South peninsular India currently shows a 31% rain deficit, and central India a 60% shortfall.
Monsoon is yet to cover many parts of central India. Normally, it covers parts of Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar by June 15.
A climate expert said the active mei-yu (Chinese for ‘plum rains’) front is dragging significant moisture from the Indian region, resulting in heavy rainfall over parts of China and even in parts of northeast India, and once this front weakens, the southwest monsoon could pick up strength around next week.
D S Pai, director of Institute of Climate Change Studies, government of Kerala, said the unfavourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase is also responsible for the country’s current below-normal rainfall.
“MJO is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon which affects weather activities across the globe. As MJO moves to its second and third phases, rainfall activity over India will increase,” Pai said.
Rajendra Jenamani, scientist at National Weather Forecasting Centre in the IMD said the last 24-hour rainfall till Thursday morning has been up to 9mm as against 6mm, with record-breaking rain in Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. “On Wednesday, Cherrapunji received 811.6mm, the highest after 1995’s record for June. Mawsynram also received the fifth highest 24-hour rainfall in June recorded on Wednesday,” he added.
GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, said the monsoon current seems to be weak, with no external drivers like low pressures, west coast trough and the monsoon trough to strengthen it. The monsoon’s onset over northwest India has not taken place yet.
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